This Sunday, Arrowhead stadium will be the host of the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs against the duo of the decade, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in, what should be, a high scoring game for the AFC championship title.
This game is the first rematch since the Chiefs and Patriots duked it out week 6 of the regular season with the Patriots ending up victorious by a score of 43-40.
I predict a similar outcome, a “last person to have the ball wins” kind of game. But, with the coaching matchup we have, changes will be made.
On one side we have Andy Reid, head coach of the Chiefs, who has one conference championship under his belt back when he coached in Philadelphia. As funny as it seems, that year he lost to Belichick and the Patriots in the Super Bowl, so he would like some revenge.
On the other we have the mastermind Bill Belichick, head coach of the Patriots, who has been in this situation before. Bill has won 8 conference championships along with 5 Super Bowls. In fact, this is the Patriots 8th straight AFC championship (winning 3 of the last 4), meaning Bill isn’t one to shy away on the main stage.
Both these coaches have plenty of experience (a combined 69 years of NFL coaching) and they are going to need all of it to edge their opponent. In my opinion, the gameplans of each team should be fairly simple, which sounds ironic when talking about 2 of the most high-powered teams in the NFL, but if each team follows these set of rules, they should prevail.
Chiefs
- Capitalize On Big Plays
Last time the Chiefs played the Patriots in their shootout, the Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns over 60 yards. That needs to continue. The Chiefs led the regular season in points scored per game (35.3) and yards per game (425.6) and in their last matchup Mahomes threw for 352 yards alone with 4 touchdowns. After working with elite arms like Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid knows he’ll have to let the young buck throw like the veterans for them to have success.
- Pressure Tom
For me, this is one of the most crucial things the chiefs do in this championship matchup. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have 5 loses on the season so far. In 3 out of those 5 loses, Tom Brady threw for under 65% completion. Along with this, Tom Brady was last in the league against the blitz. It is no secret that Tom Brady can throw the ball well, but if the Chiefs Defense, who, by the way, led the league in sacks with 52 this year, can pressure Tom and force him to feel uncomfortable and move, they can control him and the passing game.
- Don’t Turn the Ball Over
The Patriots rarely turn the ball over. Even in their 5 loses they did not turn the ball over once. Brady has been around long enough to know what are smart decisions and what aren’t. On the other hand, the Chiefs are starting a first-year starter at quarterback that can make rookie mistakes at times. Like I said earlier, Mahomes needs to capitalize on big plays to win this game, just be smart with the ball. In their regular season matchup Mahomes threw 2 interceptions to Brady’s none. If the Chiefs minimize self-induced errors, they should see a better result.
- Stop the Run
This is not an easy task for the Chiefs, being 27th in the league allowing 132.1 rush yards per game, and it showed in week 6. Sony Michel ran for 106 yards on 24 attempts and 2 rushing touchdowns, which obviously resulted in a loss. Turn ahead the clock a bit, to last week, where the Chiefs took on a red-hot Colts team (who had won 10 of their last 11) and completely shut them down. Marlon Mack only had 46 rush yards on 9 attempts and the colts were stunned all of the first half. Shutting down the run was something the Colts didn’t expect and neither will the Patriots. Stopping the run won’t end the game, Belichick is smarter than that, but it will sure have a big impact.
Quick Sidenote:
Throw it back to the 2015 AFC Championship matchup between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Granted, the Broncos were more defensive oriented, but with Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady at quarterback, that game was no cake walk. The Broncos won that game, in their home stadium, with New England throwing 2 interceptions to the Broncos 0, and Tom Brady leading the team with 13 rushing yards. Coincidence?
Patriots
- Run the Ball
In the last meeting between the Patriots and Chiefs and the Patriots’ divisional game against L.A, the patriots scored a total of 84 points with Sony Michel rushing for a combined 235 yards on 48 combined attempts and 5 rushing touchdowns. It’s obvious that when New England jump starts its run game, the whole offense follows hand-in-hand. In fact, in all 5 of the New England loses this year, their leading rusher didn’t even break 60 yards rushing. If they get their run game going, it’ll force the chiefs to focus on stopping the run, leaving them vulnerable to Tom Brady’s elite arm.
- Target Veteran Players in Key Situations
This one is obvious. Julian Edelman is now second all-time in playoff receptions and Rob Gronkowski is the all-time NFL postseason leader in targets (96), receiving yards (856), and touchdown receptions (10) by a tight end. There is no doubt in my mind that if Tom Brady looks in one of their directions in a crucial situation, the Patriots will succeed.
- Put Pressure on Young Qb
Yes, Patrick Mahomes will likely be MVP this year. Yes, week after week he makes plays we’ve never seen before. Yes, he leads the top offense in the league. But, this is still his first year starting. What he does game after game is absolutely insane, but none of it would be advised to anybody. Throwing off your back foot, side arm, and across the field are things veterans try to stay away from because they know better. I say try because they still do it, but they have something Mahomes doesn’t… experience. If the Patriots keep him uncomfortable, he will make rookie mistakes, it’s going to happen. With this tip in mind in brings me to my last piece of advice.
- Keep Mahomes in the Pocket
Mahomes has an impressive passer rating against the blitz with a 117.7, which is second in the league. Why does he have such a high rating against the blitz? Because he gets flushed out the pocket and makes plays out of nothing. According to ESPN, Mahomes has a passing grade of 93 out of 100 outside the pocket, but keep him in the pocket, and that number drops significantly to 78.3. Either spy those ends of make sure they keep contains because that’ll be one less thing to worry about in this explosive offense.
Prediction
I believe that the Patriots will win this game 38-34. Like I said earlier, this will be a close game and both these offenses will fly high. I do not expect to see a defensive oriented game at all, but whichever can come up with a clutch play late in the game will be victorious. I hate going against my Chiefs like this, but Belichick is always 2 steps ahead of the game and I think he’ll get the better of the Chiefs offense on Sunday.
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